Anne Stevenson-Yang Shared a View of China’s Big Trouble

image4_Pinnochio
Global Ponzi Economy:
We ask everyone to question everything and research further.
The story shared by Anne Stevenson-Yang via Barrons.com needs to be researched and questioned as much as the official reports about China from the People’s Bank Of China and the International Monetary Fund.
Today there are no reports or stories we can blindly accept, as all must be scrutinized with critical research.
Having said all the above, after reading the story below, we get wowed with the stark contrast of peril and prosperity of the state of the Chinese economy! ~Ron
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“As for Xi’s much-ballyhooed anticorruption campaign inside China, it offends me that international media depict it as a good-governance effort. What’s really going on is an old-style party purge reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s with quota-driven arrests, summary trials, mysterious disappearances, and suicides, which has already entrapped, by our calculations, 100,000 party operatives and others. The intent is not moral purification by the Xi administration but instead the elimination of political enemies and other claimants to the economy’s spoils.”

Why Beijing’s Troubles Could Get a Lot Worse

Bank rate cuts and anticorruption campaign are unlikely to stave off woes, says Anne Stevenson-Yang.
[…]
Barron’s: Investors seem far more concerned about Europe’s sinking into economic despond than slowing growth in China. Are they whistling past the graveyard?

Stevenson-Yang: I think so. China, for all its talk about economic reform, is in big trouble. The old model of relying on export growth and heavy investment to power the economy isn’t working anymore.

Sure, the nation has been hugely successful over recent decades in providing its people with literacy, a decent life, basic health care, shelter, and safe cities. But starting in 2008, China sought to counter global recession with huge amounts of ill-advised investment in redundant industrial capacity and vanity infrastructure projects—you know, airports with no commercial flights, highways to nowhere, and stadiums with no teams. The country is now submerged by the tsunami of bad debt that begets further unhealthy credit growth to service this debt. The recent lowering of benchmark deposit rates by the People’s Bank of China won’t accomplish much because it won’t offer more income to households. It also gave China’s biggest banks the discretion to raise their deposit rates back up to old levels, which would give them a competitive advantage

How bad can the situation be when the Chinese economy grew by 7.3% in the latest quarter?

People are crazy if they believe any government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated. In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior. For a time we started to look at numbers like electric-power production and freight traffic to get a line on actual economic growth because no one believed the gross- domestic-product figures. It didn’t take long for Beijing to figure this out and start doctoring those numbers, too.

I put much stock in estimates by various economists, including some at the Conference Board, that actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported. And as for the recent International Monetary Fund report calling China the world’s biggest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis, how silly was that? China is a cheap place to live if one is willing to eat rice, cabbage, and pork, but it’s expensive as all get out once you factor in the cost of decent housing, a car, and health care.

I’d be shocked if China is currently growing at a rate above, say, 4%, and any growth at all is coming from financial services, which ultimately depend on sustained growth in the rest of the economy. Think about it: Property sales are in decline, steel production is falling, commercial long-and short-haul vehicle sales are continuing to implode, and much of the growth in GDP is coming from huge rises in inventories across the economy. We track the 400 Chinese consumer companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and in the third quarter, their gross revenues fell 4% from a year ago. This is hardly a vibrant economy.

Read Full Report: http://online.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773
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10 comments on “Anne Stevenson-Yang Shared a View of China’s Big Trouble
  1. swo8 says:

    I guess all countries lie to their people. Interesting times!
    Leslie

  2. At present, China is causing major problems for New Zealand by buying up massive amounts of agricultural land and agricultural processing plants. Not only does this impoverish New Zealand by causing profits to flow oversees instead of remaining here – it also forces organic farmers and consumers to sacrifice their access to quality organic meat.

    By law NZ farmers aren’t allowed to sell home kill. They can only sell meat that has been processed through a licensed abattoir – a law that is very strictly enforced. Our only abattoir in the whole region was recently bought by a Chinese company that refuses to process meat for domestic use. They will only process meat for export.

    Thus the only option for accessing organic meat in New Plymouth and the rest of Taranaki is the black market.

    • RonMamita says:

      I do recall you mentioning that.
      Those types of commercial laws are being enforced within the UN member states, under the banner of food safety regulations. At some point the laws will become so unbearable that people will rebel to survive. I can envision communities of noncompliance with fishing, hunting/butchering and community farms trading without licensing.
      Perhaps noncommercial and nonprofit?

      Obviously that, “black market”, will be attacked by the governing institutions.

  3. RonMamita says:

    First direct China-Spain freight train arrives in Madrid
    by Staff Writers
    Madrid (AFP) Dec 09, 2014

    The first freight train to link China directly to Spain arrived in Madrid on Tuesday after covering over 13,000 kilometres (8,000 miles) in a test run of a planned regular service between the two nations.

    The train departed Yiwu in eastern China, a major wholesale centre for small consumer goods, on November 18 and passed through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, and France during its 21-day trip.

    The newly operational route is the longest railway route in the world, longer still than Russia’s famous Transsiberian railway linking Moscow to Vladivostok near Russia’s border with China.

    The journey time was over ten days shorter than if the goods transported by the train had been shipped by sea, Spain’s public works ministry said.

    The train’s 40 shipping containers transported goods made in Zhejiang province, including spinning tops for children and cutting tools. The train will return to China with wine, olive oil and cured ham.

    Speaking a ceremony in Madrid, Li Qiang, the governor of China’s Zhejiang province where Yiwu is located, said the route was important to “implement the strategy of developing a new ‘silk road'”.

    China has a regular direct freight train service to Germany, Europe’s largest economy.

    One route links the Chinese megacity of Chongqing to Duisburg, a steel-making town and one of Germany’s most-important transportation and commercial hubs.

    The other route links Beijing, the Chinese capital, to Hamburg, Germany’s second-largest city.

    The plan is to create a similar regular route between China and Spain, Spanish Public Works Minister Ana Pastor told reporters after the train arrived at a logistical centre near Madrid’s main railway station.

    The Spanish capital already is “a European and international distribution hub” with good links to both Africa and Latin America, she said.

    Euro Cargo Rail, a subsidiary of German freight operator DB Shenker Rail, is studying the possibility of starting a regular service between China and Spain during the first half of next year with two monthly trips.

    Roughly 80 percent of global trade is shipped by boat as freight train service faces several technical and bureaucratic hurdles which vary according to country.

    The goods on the train which arrived in Madrid for example had to be transferred to different wagons at three points during the trip because of incompatible track gauges in different countries.

    But rail transport is less expensive, more environmentally friendly and faster than maritime shipping, according to DB Shenker Rail.

    China is the European Union’s biggest source of imports, according to the European Commission.

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